Ascending Broncos Host Hated Raiders

Football Betting Lines

11/21/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In last Sunday's win at the Atlanta Falcons, the Denver Broncos proved that their beleaguered defense could exhibit solid play for four quarters against a quality opponent with a dangerous offensive cast.

The Broncos' task on Sunday, against an Oakland Raiders team that is neither high-quality nor boasts any semblance of offensive consistency, figures to be far less challenging.

The Raiders (2-8) come into Invesco Field at Mile High having not scored an offensive touchdown in 13 quarters dating back to a third-quarter JaMarcus Russell touchdown pass to Justin Griffith against Baltimore on Oct. 26th.

Since that time, the Silver and Black have found the end zone just once, a 93- yard punt return for a score by Johnnie Lee Higgins against Miami last Sunday. That fourth-quarter TD actually put the Raiders ahead, 15-14, until the ensuing Dolphins drive resulted in a game-winning field goal and handed Miami a 17-15 win. The result extended Oakland's losing streak to four since an overtime victory against the Jets in Week 7.

The Raiders have not scored a first-quarter touchdown this season, and have not scored a first-quarter touchdown on the road since Sept. 30, 2007, when current Detroit Lion Daunte Culpepper rushed for a touchdown against the Dolphins.

Entering Week 12, Oakland is last in the NFL in scoring offense (12.8 points per game), passing offense (136.9 yards per game), completion percentage (49.6), touchdowns (10), rushing touchdowns (3), passing touchdowns (6), and third-down percentage (22.1).

The Broncos, meanwhile, feature one of the most powerful passing attacks in the league, though as mentioned, it was the defense that was the story in last week's 24-20 win at Atlanta.

Three Falcons running backs combined for just 96 yards on 30 carries (3.2 yards per attempt), with a makeshift Denver linebacking corps consisting of rookie Spencer Larsen in the middle and Wesley Woodyard and Jamie Winborn on the outside making a number of big tackles and consistently guarding against the game-changing big play.

Against the pass, the Broncos didn't have a sack and allowed Roddy White to go over 100 yards, but also kept quarterback Matt Ryan from throwing a touchdown strike and received a big interception from cornerback Dre' Bly in the second half.

The 20 points were the fewest surrendered by the Broncos since defeating the Buccaneers, 16-13, on Oct. 5.

The victory, coupled with a Chargers loss at Pittsburgh, moved Mike Shanahan's squad two games up on second-place San Diego (4-6) in the AFC West.

SERIES HISTORY

The Raiders lead the all-time regular season series with Denver, which dates back to 1960, by a 54-40-2 count, but were a 41-14 home loser when the teams met in Week 1. Denver is now 21-6 against Oakland since the 1995 season, but had a five-game winning streak in the series snapped with a 34-20 loss in Oakland in Week 12 of last year. The Broncos were 23-20 overtime winners when the clubs met in the Mile High City in Week 2 of last year, and the Raiders are 0-3 in Denver since last winning there in 2004.

In addition to the regular season series, the teams have split a pair of postseason matchups, with Denver winning the 1977 AFC Championship, 20-17, and the then-Los Angeles Raiders prevailing in a 1993 AFC First-Round Playoff, 42-24.

Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan is 21-6 against the team he coached in 1988 and part of the 1989 season before being fired. Oakland's Tom Cable will be meeting both Shanahan and the Broncos for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE RAIDERS HAVE THE BALL

Charged with the task of leading Oakland's first touchdown drive of the month of November will be Russell (1445 passing yards, 6 TD, 4 INT), who returned from a one-week injury absence in last week's loss to Miami. Russell was nearly made an unlikely winner after the Raiders took a late lead, though the best thing you could say about the second-year pro's performance is that he didn't make any major mistakes. Russell completed 15-of-22 passes for 156 yards without a touchdown or turnover in the loss, including six completions for 73 yards to wideout Ronald Curry (14 receptions, 1 TD), who posted his top performance of the year. The Raiders' top target for most of 2008 has been tight end Zach Miller (29 receptions, 1 TD), who caught four balls for 67 yards in the defeat. Rookie rusher Darren McFadden (354 rushing yards, 1 TD, 12 receptions) returned last week after missing three games with turf toe, but Justin Fargas (440 rushing yards, 5 receptions) continued to receive a bulk of the carries. Fargas carried 17 times for 57 yards in the game, while the first-rounder McFadden totaled just 13 yards on three rush attempts. The Raider o-line has struggled for much of the year, allowing 32 sacks, including six last week.

With injuries still wreaking havoc on defense, the Broncos are going to need previously unknown players like Larsen, Woodyard, and rookie cornerbacks Josh Bell (6 tackles) and Jack Williams (10 tackles) to continue making an impact. Larsen (15 tackles), who made headlines by starting at linebacker, fullback, and on special teams in the same game, finished with seven tackles in the Atlanta win, while running mates Woodyard (24 tackles) and Winborn (58 tackles) combined for 18 more. The Broncos improved to 26th in the league versus the run (142.1 yards per game) following last week's effort. The Broncos continue to rank just 29th in the league against the pass (243.5 yards per game), and have only four interceptions on the year, but could get cornerback Champ Bailey (28 tackles, 1 INT) back after a three-game absence on Sunday. Bailey (groin) is considered questionable for this week. Getting pressure on Russell will also be a directive for the Broncos on Sunday, after the team was shut out in that regard last week. Denver has 20 sacks on the year, including a combined seven from ends Ebenezer Ekuban (20 tackles, 4 sacks) and Elvis Dumervil (14 tackles, 3 sacks).

WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL

Though the Broncos have undergone numerous personnel changes since the Raiders last saw them in Week 1, what has not changed is that Denver remains essentially a pass-first group. Jay Cutler (2832 passing yards, 19 TD, 11 INT) enters Week 12 with a strong 90.7 passer rating, and was an efficient 19-of-27 for 216 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers in Atlanta last week. Brandon Marshall (63 receptions, 4 TD) and Eddie Royal (56 receptions, 4 TD) have both proven difficult for opponents to stop. Royal went for 146 yards against the Raiders in Week 1, a game in which Marshall did not appear due to a suspension. Tight end Tony Scheffler (20 receptions, 2 TD) has been mostly quiet amid injuries of late, and did not have a catch in Atlanta last Sunday. Scheffler (groin) is considered probable for Sunday. The Broncos' running game has gone to a by-committee approach, which worked well in the win over the Falcons last week. Converted rookie fullback Peyton Hillis (82 rushing yards, 11 receptions, 3 TD) scored two of the Broncos' three touchdowns and rushed for 44 yards on 10 carries, practice squad promotee P.J. Pope made his four carries count for 35 yards, and prodigal son Tatum Bell - who looked like he might never wear an NFL uniform again following a bizarre teammate-theft story after being cut from the Lions in early September - carried seven times for 34 yards just days after being re-signed to the team. The Broncos o-line has done a terrific job protecting Cutler all season, surrendering only seven sacks all year.

Denver could see fit to attack Oakland via the run game, given that the Raiders are a distant 30th in NFL rushing defense (164.5 yards per game) as Week 12 begins. The Dolphins piled up 222 yards on the ground versus the Silver and Black last week, with tackles Gerard Warren (23 tackles, 4 sacks) and Tommy Kelly (40 tackles, 3.5 sacks) again failing to make much of an impact at the point of attack. Linebackers Kirk Morrison (87 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Thomas Howard (65 tackles, 1 sack) continue to rank among team leaders in tackles, but the fact that safety Gibril Wilson (1 INT) has 86 stops on the year says much about the soft nature of the Raiders' front seven. The strength of the Oakland defense has been its coverage, particularly the work of cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (24 tackles, 1 INT) and safeties Wilson and Hiram Eugene (29 tackles). The pass rush has also been decent, generating 24 sacks including three of Chad Pennington last week. End Kalimba Edwards (36 tackles, 5 sacks) continues to lead the club in sacks, but did not manage one last Sunday. Oakland is 12th in the league against the pass (194.7 yards per game) as Week 12 commences, but has also faced the fifth-fewest pass attempts in the NFL.

FANTASY FOCUS

The Raiders have been fantasy league poison for the better part of the past month, but there's a chance someone like Fargas, McFadden, or tight end Miller could put up a surprising total against a still-shaky Denver defense. Otherwise, stay far, far away from any member of this team.

The principles of the Broncos passing game remain strong from a fantasy standpoint, with Cutler, Marshall, and Royal all serving as must-starts. Tight end Scheffler was once a solid option as well, but has been beset by injuries and did not have a catch in Atlanta. The running-back-by-committee approach is generally problematic for fantasy purposes, but given the weakness of the Raiders run defense, you might want to take a flier on Hillis or perhaps Bell. Kicker Matt Prater has been great in leagues that give bonuses for kicks of 50+. Normally you wouldn't get anywhere near the Broncos defense, but if you're looking for a group that has a favorable matchup this week, Denver is the one.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Don't expect the Broncos to underestimate the Raiders as the Dolphins apparently did last week. No matter how bad Oakland is, Shanahan and the Broncos always seem to save something special for them, and wouldn't dare let another opportunity to embarrass Al Davis slip away. Luckily for Denver, this Oakland team figures to be compliant, as the Raiders' effort and talent level have alternately competed for least-potent status. Just like in Week 1, the Broncos will control both sides of the football and walk away with a sizeable win.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Broncos 30, Raiders 10