Byrd looking for repeat performance in Hawaii

Golf Betting Lines

01/06/2012 - Kapalua, Hawaii (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When all the champions get together, it seems as though Jonathan Byrd shines the brightest.

Byrd, attempting to defend his title at the PGA Tour's season-opening Hyundai Tournament of Champions, began with a six-under 67 on Friday and sits alone atop the leaderboard.

His only victory of 2011 came in a playoff win over Robert Garrigus at Plantation Course at Kapalua, but Byrd is looking to make it two in a row after eight birdies and two bogeys. If he were to go on to victory, Byrd would have six PGA Tour wins in his career.

The season-opening event is four rounds like most other tournaments, except it will end Monday evening as opposed to the traditional Sunday finish. Invitations are extended only to those who won a tournament in the previous year, and, after Lucas Glover's withdrawal earlier in the day, 27 entrants teed off on Friday.

Byrd will have to keep up his hot play if he is to hold off a host of contenders, as four players share second at five-under 68. Among those is Webb Simpson, who is coming off a second-place performance in last year's FedEx Cup Playoffs.

The others include 11-time PGA Tour champ Steve Stricker, Michael Bradley and Martin Laird. PGA Champion Keegan Bradley is sixth at minus-four.

Byrd was in the final pairing with FedEx Cup champ Bill Haas, but while Haas struggled all afternoon, Byrd wasted no time.

After two opening pars, Byrd ran off six straight birdies, but it was the final three that were the most impressive.

He broke into red figures with a five-foot birdie putt at the third and followed with birdies at Nos. 4 and 5 from about the same length. The streak appeared over at the sixth, when his approach sat 28 feet away from the pin, but Byrd sank the putt to move to four-under.

Byrd, who made only 12 putts from over 25 feet in all of 2011, followed with a 26-footer at the seventh for birdie and a 29-footer for birdie at the eighth. At six-under, even the defending champion was a bit stunned.

"That's it?" Byrd said on television when informed of his 12 made putts from long distance in 2011. "It's something I practiced this offseason. I tried to improve on 10 to 25 feet after looking at the stats."

Unfortunately for Byrd, he was unable to maintain the momentum all the way through. He missed a nine-foot par putt at the ninth, and he found a greenside bunker at the par-three 11th en route to another bogey.

After dropping back to four-under, Byrd responded with an eight-foot birdie putt at the 12th. At the 16th, he made his fourth long putt of the round, draining a 29-footer for birdie to get back to six-under.

He had a chance to move two clear with a birdie at the last, but his 12-foot chance barely missed. Still, Byrd was optimistic about his play.

"I felt good out there," Byrd said on TV. "My misses were good. I only hit a few loose shots. For the most part, I'm really pleased. I gave myself a lot of opportunities and made a few putts."

K.J. Choi is in seventh at three-under 70, while D.A. Points and Bryce Molder share eighth at minus-two.

NOTES: In 2011, Brandt Jobe, Hunter Mahan, Cameron Tringale and Johnson Wagner tied for the most putts made of over 25 feet with 28. Wagner is the only one of the four in the field this week, and he shot a one-under 72...Byrd ranked 130th on that list with his 12 makes in 2011...Glover withdrew due to a knee injury suffered in a paddleboard accident earlier in the week...This is the fewest number of players in the field since the tournament moved to Kapalua in 1999.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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